What does the term "stochastic factors" refer to in the context of crash likelihood?

The term "stochastic factors" refers to elements that are inherently random and unpredictable in nature. In the context of crash likelihood, these factors can include unexpected changes in weather conditions, sudden mechanical failures, or the behavior of other road users that cannot be accurately forecasted. The presence of stochastic factors introduces uncertainty into analyses of crash risk, as they represent variations that can influence the likelihood of an accident occurring but do so in an unpredictable fashion.

Understanding stochastic factors is crucial for road safety professionals, as it highlights the limitations of predictive models based solely on historical data. While certain predictable conditions might lead to crash trends, stochastic factors remind us that unexpected events can always arise, necessitating adaptive safety measures and strategies that account for this variability.