What does the regression-to-the-mean concept describe?

The regression-to-the-mean concept describes how extreme observations tend to be followed by more moderate ones, ultimately converging to an average over time. In the context of road safety, this means that years with an unusually high or low incidence of crashes are often followed by years that are closer to the average crash rate. This phenomenon occurs because random variations, such as weather conditions, changes in traffic volume, or unique circumstances affecting road safety, can lead to temporarily high or low crash figures. Over time, as these random factors balance out, the data tends to return to a long-term mean.

This understanding is crucial for professionals in road safety because it helps to interpret data accurately. For instance, if a particular year shows a spike in crashes, one might not want to overreact or implement drastic measures if the expectation is that the following year will return closer to the historical average. Recognizing this statistical behavior allows for more informed decision-making and more effective long-term planning for road safety initiatives.